Friday, January 13, 2006

Prediction: Painful

It's prediction time. The X's and O's of this game rely on the intangibles, namely Denver's home field advantage vs. the Patriots playoff prowess. And for Denver Saturday Night will have to be a night of firsts.

First Quarter and First Down. If Denver can use the home-field advantage in the First Quarter to get out to at least a touchdown lead by quarter's end, they should be in position to win this game. If Denver can get more than five yards on First Down, they should be able to control the clock, keep Brady off the field and make New England play their game and be in position to win this game.

If they do not do both, they put New England in position to rely on its playoff experience to know that they can win this game in the Fourth Quarter. Or even worese they can jump out to a lead and take the crowd out of the game, if not turning it against its team. This could cause Jake Plummer into desperate situations which while he may do absolutely fine in this role, it is not something Bronco fans want to depend on.

What do I see happening? I've played every scenario in my head, but unfortunately this is the one that keeps me up at night. Denver is somewhat successful at both running and passing the ball but Brady keeps answering, leading to a seven point Denver lead heading into the Fourth Quarter. Brady answers in the fourth again and Denver fails to execute on a drive giving New England the ball back with a little over a minute to play. One of the rookie corners gets beat by Branch or Givens setting up Adam Vinatier from 40+ yards. Field Goal Good! Good Night Broncos Super Bowl hopes. I can't believe I just said that.

Until I see otherwise, I can't expect anything else.

New England 31, Denver 28

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